Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-23 1.699985 1.769488 1.842106 1.923976 2.014131 2.110877 2.223223
2025-11-30 1.622988 1.714765 1.813911 1.929932 2.063264 2.213356 2.397594
2025-12-07 1.536635 1.638713 1.751344 1.886391 2.046137 2.232137 2.470039
2025-12-14 1.484696 1.596063 1.721222 1.874582 2.060856 2.284783 2.583043
2025-12-21 1.437211 1.554879 1.689084 1.856471 2.064339 2.321205 2.675993
2025-12-28 1.415362 1.541647 1.687979 1.874068 2.110965 2.413144 2.849079
2026-01-04 1.401075 1.536024 1.694806 1.900628 2.169296 2.523522 3.059344
2026-01-11 1.373187 1.512485 1.678213 1.896083 2.185886 2.577875 3.193899
2026-01-18 1.351662 1.495546 1.668596 1.899297 2.212065 2.646479 3.357822
2026-01-25 1.316208 1.460142 1.634349 1.868505 2.189582 2.642785 3.404300
2026-02-01 1.292270 1.438130 1.616022 1.857545 2.193409 2.677204 3.517757
2026-02-08 1.269915 1.417313 1.598335 1.846387 2.195871 2.709073 3.630372
2026-02-15 1.248399 1.397551 1.582091 1.837488 2.202490 2.750074 3.770752
2026-02-22 1.235572 1.388220 1.578770 1.845675 2.233864 2.832107 4.003438
2026-03-01 1.204596 1.354947 1.543151 1.807769 2.194783 2.796427 3.993917
2026-03-08 1.186624 1.337849 1.528236 1.798041 2.197287 2.829531 4.133746
2026-03-15 1.167141 1.318308 1.509490 1.782128 2.189385 2.844145 4.236177
2026-03-22 1.161312 1.316174 1.513678 1.798645 2.231953 2.949187 4.569318
2026-03-29 1.158807 1.318191 1.523340 1.823203 2.288400 3.084932 5.024450
2026-04-05 1.145931 1.306266 1.513720 1.819217 2.298718 3.136500 5.275592
2026-04-12 1.136186 1.298206 1.509082 1.822261 2.320484 3.211917 5.625578
2026-04-19 1.115797 1.275656 1.484027 1.794145 2.289180 3.180324 5.631105
2026-04-26 1.102524 1.262316 1.471363 1.784143 2.287710 3.208325 5.844946